Let’s see how government spending data moves during the election. It turns out, if observed, that the level of government spending on the recorded GDP component increased sharply, as it approached the election, but then dropped as the election was held, due to the effects of the previous high spending levels, and then increased again when the new government was elected.

But this trend is not always the same, for example, in 2009. At the time, government spending continued to rise rapidly as the elections were taking place. It’s because the government in power wants another victory.

Read more in the Macroeconomic Analysis Series – Indonesia Economic Outlook 2024 by LPEM FEB UI, via the following link: https://www.lpem.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/IEO2024-ID.pdf